LemonTrades
TL;DR
- Not right now. AAA’s national average fell 12 cents in a week to $4.10 on November 5, as crude oil slipped.
- It’s still the highest price ever for this time of year, and more than $1 above last year.
- The main risk is oil. Gas moves about 2.4 cents a gallon for every $1 on a barrel, and Goldman Sachs has flagged a risk of $105 oil.
- LemonTrades tells you what moved oil, and why, within seconds, so you know before the pump does.
Pump prices have been falling since late October. Whether that lasts depends mostly on crude oil, which you can follow live here.
Where gas prices stand
- $4.10 a gallon: AAA’s national average on November 5, down 12 cents in a week.
- A November record: the average had never been above $4 in November before 2026.
- More than $1 higher than a year ago, which is why it still feels expensive.
What could push gas back up
- Middle East supply: crude has dipped on hopes of diplomacy with Iran. If those talks fail, oil could jump quickly, and Goldman Sachs has flagged a risk of $105 a barrel.
- Refinery trouble: outages or storms can raise gas prices even when crude doesn’t move.
- OPEC+ cuts: less oil on the market means higher prices.
- A strong economy: more driving and shipping mean more demand.
What could keep it falling
- Winter: people drive less, and winter gas is cheaper to make.
- A peace deal or more oil from producers.
- A weaker economy: the November stock sell-off has raised worries about demand.
The US government’s next oil forecast is due on November 10. For the timing, see when gas prices might go down.
Why it matters beyond the pump
Gas feeds straight into inflation, which affects the Fed’s rate decisions. That’s why stock, bond and gold traders all watch oil.
Sources
- AAA: national average falls 12 cents in one week (November 5, 2026)
- TheStreet: gas prices fall, but Goldman Sachs sees possible supply disruptions
- EIA: factors affecting gasoline prices
- EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook
Education, not financial advice. See our disclaimer.
