LemonTrades
TL;DR
- The IPO is over. Anyone with a brokerage account can buy SPCX on the Nasdaq, and it recently traded below the $135 IPO price.
- For: third-quarter revenue up 161% to $14.6 billion and a $4.4 billion profit. Most analysts rate it a Buy.
- Against: a value of about $1.7 trillion, or 34 times this year’s expected revenue, huge spending, and big blocks of shares unlocking from December.
- LemonTrades tells you what moved SpaceX, and why, as it happens, and warns you before its earnings.
SpaceX’s June IPO was the biggest ever. Five months later, its business looks stronger than it did then, while its stock has been anything but steady. Here’s the scorecard.
The case for
- Blowout growth: Q3 revenue was $14.6 billion, up 161% and well above the $12.7 billion expected.
- Profit: net income of $4.4 billion, after a loss in the second quarter.
- AI: its computing and Grok business brought in $7.56 billion, up 830%.
- Starlink: 13.6 million subscribers and $5.25 billion of connectivity revenue, up 69%.
- Analysts: 39 rate it a Buy on average, with an average target of about $257.
The case against
- The price: about $1.7 trillion for a company expected to make about $49 billion of revenue this year. That’s roughly 34 times sales, and it needs years of very fast growth.
- Spending: capital spending was $19.6 billion in the quarter, $16.4 billion of it on AI. So far in 2026, it has exceeded operating cash flow by about $35 billion.
- Share unlocks: most pre-IPO holders can start selling from December 2026, and insiders from June 2027. More shares for sale often weigh on a new stock.
- Falling revenue per user: Starlink’s monthly average dropped to $69 from $83 as it signs up customers in cheaper markets.
- Elon Musk: his plans drive the premium, and the risk. Tesla and SpaceX’s boards are studying a merger.
- Swings: the stock has ranged from $108 to $211 at the close in five months, and it fell 9.1% in one day on October 22.
Three questions before you buy
- Are you happy with the AI bet? More than half of revenue now comes from AI computing, not rockets or Starlink.
- Can you hold through a 50% fall? It has already done that once, from June to August.
- Is it a small part of what you own? A single stock this volatile shouldn’t be most of your savings.
Scenarios: SpaceX stock price prediction 2027 and 2030. Only want Starlink? See how to invest in Starlink.
Sources
- CNBC: SpaceX third-quarter results, live updates
- CNBC: what analysts say about SpaceX after its results
- Motley Fool: the 5 most important numbers from SpaceX’s earnings
- StockAnalysis: SpaceX analyst forecasts
- Broadband Breakfast: Starlink reaches 13.6 million subscribers
Education, not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the loss of your money. See our disclaimer.
