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Palantir stock price prediction 2030: three scenarios, with the math

Where Palantir stock could be in 2030 under bear, base and bull cases, the growth and valuation each needs, what analysts say now, and the yearly return today’s price implies.

LemonTrades·Guides
A price line fanning out into three dashed paths toward 2030.

TL;DR

  • Palantir expects about $8.15 billion of revenue in 2026, up 82%, and the stock trades at roughly 55 to 60 times that.
  • Our scenarios for 2030: about $100 a share if growth slows to 20% a year, about $270 at 35%, and about $580 if it keeps growing 50% a year.
  • Analysts’ 12-month targets average roughly $180 to $190, below today’s price. A high valuation means little room for disappointment.
  • LemonTrades tells you what moved Palantir, and why, as it happens, and warns you before its earnings.

Nobody knows where any stock will be in 2030. What you can do is work out what has to happen for a price to make sense. Here’s that math for Palantir.

Scenario for 2030Share priceNeeded a year from today
Todaylive$–– today
Bear20% growth a year, 15 times sales$101–
Base35% growth a year, 25 times sales$271–
Bull50% growth a year, 35 times sales$578–

Live, updated every minute. The last column is the yearly return from today’s price to each scenario by the end of 2030. Quote, chart and news: Palantir Technologies stock.

How the scenarios work

BearBaseBull
Revenue growth a year, 2027–203020%35%50%
2030 revenue$16.9B$27.1B$41.3B
Price-to-sales multiple15×25×35×
Company value$254B$677B$1.44T
Per shareabout 2.5 billion shares$101$271$578

Starting point: 2026 revenue of about $8.15 billion, Palantir’s own guidance. The share count assumes some dilution from stock paid to employees. Fast-growing software companies have traded at 10 to 30 times sales in good times; Palantir trades far higher, which is the bet.

What has to go right

  • US companies keep buying: US commercial revenue grew 149% in the second quarter of 2026.
  • AIP becomes standard: its AI platform has to become the way large organizations run AI on their own data.
  • Governments keep spending, led by the US military, and more allies sign on.
  • Margins hold: Palantir expects $4.5–4.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2026, a very high share of revenue.

What could go wrong

  • Growth slows to software-normal rates, and the multiple shrinks with it: the bear case above.
  • Competition from the big cloud companies’ own AI tools.
  • Government budgets and contract timing, which can swing quarters.
  • An AI sell-off that hits every richly valued AI stock at once. See why AI stocks plunge.

What analysts say now

Over the next 12 months, analysts’ average targets range from about $182 (Investing.com, 27 analysts) to about $190 (MarketBeat, 35 analysts), with individual targets from $70 to $255. Citi’s target is $200. The next test is the third-quarter report, expected around November 2. Has it ever split? See Palantir stock split.

Sources

Education, not financial advice. These are illustrations, not forecasts. See our disclaimer.

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