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TL;DR
- PCE prices rose 3.6% in the year to September 2026, and core PCE, without food and energy, rose 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August.
- The Fed’s target is 2% PCE inflation, so inflation is well above where it wants it. That’s why it held rates at 3.75–4.00% on October 28.
- PCE usually runs a little below CPI, which was 3.7% in September. The October PCE report is due November 25.
- LemonTrades warns you 15 minutes before every inflation report, then tells you what it did to your markets.
The September report came out on October 29, the day after the Fed held rates. Both headline and core were at their highest since May.
| PCE, September 2026 | From a year earlier | In the month |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Core PCE | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| CPI, for comparison | 3.7% | – |
| Fed target | 2.0% | – |
Figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED. After an annual update in September, May’s headline peak now reads 3.8% instead of 4.1%.
What PCE measures
PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures. It tracks the prices of everything people buy, or have bought for them, including health care paid by employers and the government. It’s published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the Commerce Department, near the end of each month.
PCE vs CPI
| PCE | CPI | |
|---|---|---|
| Published by | Bureau of Economic Analysis | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Covers | All spending on people, including employer health care | What households pay out of pocket |
| Housing’s weight | Smaller | Larger |
| Adjusts when people switch products | Yes, monthly | Less often |
| Usually | A little lower | A little higher |
| Who uses it | The Fed’s 2% target | Social Security raises, I bonds, TIPS |
Why markets care
Hotter inflation makes rate cuts less likely, which tends to lift Treasury yields and the dollar and weigh on stocks. Gold is mixed: it’s a hedge against inflation, but higher yields compete with it. See when interest rates will go down and what CPI is.
The next report
October PCE is due Wednesday, November 25, at 8:30 a.m. ET. All dates are on the economic calendar.
Sources
- BEA: Personal consumption expenditures price index
- Fox Business: September PCE inflation
- FRED: Core PCE price index
Education, not financial advice. See our disclaimer.
