LemonTrades
TL;DR
- Nobody knows when, or whether, it will. After past crashes bitcoin reached new highs about 2 to 3 years after its peak, but this is a short history.
- What to watch: the Fed and interest rates, tech stocks, money moving in and out of bitcoin ETFs, and leveraged selling.
- Smaller coins are less likely to come back than bitcoin; many never do.
- LemonTrades tells you what moved bitcoin, and why, as it happens.
Bitcoin’s peak was in October 2025. Here’s what has turned crypto around before and what would need to happen now.
How long past recoveries took
| Bitcoin peak | Low | Time from peak to low | New high |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2017 | December 2018 | About 1 year | December 2020 |
| November 2021 | November 2022 | About 1 year | March 2024 |
| October 2025 | Not known yet | One year so far | Not yet |
Five things that would signal a turn
- The Fed. Crypto has done best when money is getting cheaper. The Fed raised rates in September. See when interest rates could go down.
- Tech stocks. Bitcoin has been falling with the Nasdaq. A recovery in AI stocks would help. See is the market crashing?.
- ETF flows. Steady money coming back into spot bitcoin ETFs would show demand returning.
- Less leverage. Big liquidation days tend to clear out weak hands, but they can also signal more to come.
- Sentiment. Extreme fear has often come near lows, though not reliably. See the crypto fear and greed index.
Will every coin come back?
No. Most smaller coins never regain their old highs, and more than half of all tokens launched have died. Bitcoin, and to a lesser degree Ethereum, have the strongest record. See is crypto dead?.
What to do while you wait
- Don’t add borrowed money. Forced selling is how most leveraged traders lose everything.
- Be careful with anyone promising a date or a guaranteed bounce.
- If you’re deciding whether to buy, see should I buy bitcoin now?.
Sources
Education, not financial advice. Crypto is very risky, and you can lose all of your money. See our disclaimer.
