LemonTrades
TL;DR
- 62 analysts polled by S&P Global rate Nvidia a Strong Buy, with an average 12-month target of about $327, ranging from $180 to $515.
- Those targets rest on earnings of about $15.91 a share next fiscal year. At 15 to 25 times that, the stock would be worth about $239 to $398.
- The next big test is earnings on November 17. The stock just fell 9.3% in a day on fears about AI spending.
- LemonTrades tells you what moved Nvidia, and why, as it happens, and warns you before its earnings.
Nobody knows where Nvidia will trade next year, and analysts’ targets are often wrong. They do show what the market expects, and how much has to go right.
What the price means
Analysts expect earnings of $9.31 a share in the fiscal year ending January 2027, and $15.91 in the following year. The price depends on what investors will pay for those earnings:
| If next year’s earnings are | And investors pay | NVDA would be | From today |
|---|---|---|---|
| $12.00a 25% miss | 15 times | $180 | – |
| $15.91as forecast | 15 times | $239 | – |
| $15.91 | 20 times | $318 | – |
| $15.91 | 25 times | $398 | – |
These are illustrations, not forecasts. For whether today’s price is fair, see is Nvidia overvalued.
What the bulls expect
- Huge revenue growth: analysts see about $412 billion this fiscal year, up 91%, and about $692 billion next year. Revenue was $96.2 billion last quarter.
- Big customers keep spending: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are all raising their spending on AI data centers.
- A low price for its growth: the stock is well below most analysts’ targets.
What could go wrong
- Spending cuts: worry that AI customers won’t earn back what they spend drove the November 5 fall. See why Nvidia stock plunged.
- A few big customers buy most of its chips, and some are designing their own.
- China: export rules limit what it can sell there.
- Cycles: chip demand has boomed and slumped before, and analysts often cut their numbers only after a fall.
What to watch next
Nvidia is due to report on November 17. Traders focus on data center revenue, the forecast for the next quarter and profit margins. Dates for other companies are on the earnings calendar. Thinking of buying? See how to buy Nvidia stock.
Sources
- StockAnalysis: Nvidia analyst forecasts
- Yahoo Finance: analysts reset Nvidia’s price targets
- StockAnalysis: Nvidia overview and earnings date
Education, not financial advice. These are illustrations, not forecasts. See our disclaimer.
