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Nvidia stock price prediction 2040: the long-term math

Fourteen years is a long time in technology. Here’s what Nvidia’s stock could be worth in 2040 under different assumptions, and what has to go right.

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TL;DR

  • Analysts expect Nvidia to earn about $15.91 a share in its fiscal year ending January 2028. Everything after that is guesswork.
  • Our 2040 scenarios: about $350 a share if earnings grow 3% a year after that, $865 at 8% a year, and $1,736 at 12% a year.
  • Very few companies stay this dominant for decades. Competition, cycles and new technology are the big risks.
  • LemonTrades tells you what moved Nvidia, and why, as it happens, and warns you before its earnings.

Long-range targets aren’t forecasts. They show what you’d be betting on if you hold Nvidia until 2040.

Scenario for 2040Share priceNeeded a year from today
Todaylive$––
Bear3% earnings growth a year, 15 times earnings$350–
Base8% a year, 20 times earnings$865–
Bull12% a year, 25 times earnings$1,736–

Live, updated every minute. The last column is the yearly return from today’s price to each scenario by the end of 2040. Prices are in today’s shares; a future split would divide them.

How we got there

BearBaseBull
Earnings growth a year2028 to 20403%8%12%
2040 earnings per sharefrom $15.91$23$43$69
Price-to-earnings ratio15×20×25×
Share price$350$865$1,736

We start from analysts’ forecast for the year ending January 2028 and grow it for 13 years. Even the base case means earnings growth slows a lot from the 90% expected this year.

What the bull case needs

  • AI keeps spreading, into robots, cars and every business, and Nvidia stays the main supplier.
  • Its software (CUDA) keeps customers loyal.
  • New markets, such as data center networking and robotics, grow large.

What could go wrong

  • Customers like Google, Amazon and Microsoft use more of their own chips.
  • A slump in AI spending, like past chip busts.
  • A new kind of computing that Nvidia doesn’t lead.
  • China and export rules.

Shorter-term: NVDA stock prediction and is Nvidia overvalued. Chart and history: Nvidia stock price chart. Splits: Nvidia stock split.

Sources

Education, not financial advice. These are illustrations, not forecasts. See our disclaimer.

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