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Tesla stock prediction: what analysts expect next

Where Wall Street sees Tesla going over the next year after its Q3 2026 results: the average target, the highest and lowest calls, what bulls and bears are watching, and the dates that could move it.

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A stock line with analyst price targets marked as dots above and below it.

TL;DR

  • Wall Street’s average 12-month target for Tesla is about $415, a little above today’s price. Individual targets run from about $25 to $840.
  • Of 47 analysts, about half rate Tesla a buy, a third a hold and a tenth a sell.
  • The next big tests are Q4 deliveries in early January and Q4 results in late January 2027.
  • LemonTrades scores every Tesla headline as it breaks, so you see rating changes and news within minutes.

Analysts’ Tesla targets are further apart than almost any other big stock’s: the highest is more than 30 times the lowest. That says more about how uncertain Tesla’s future is than about where it’s going. Here’s the current picture.

TargetPriceFrom today
Tesla nowNASDAQ: TSLA, live$–– today
Highest target$840–
Average target47 analysts$415–
Lowest target$25–

Live, updated every minute. Targets as compiled by MarketBeat on October 20, 2026, before the Q3 results; analysts often change them in the days after a report.

Recent calls

  • Cantor Fitzgerald: overweight, $485.
  • Tigress Financial: buy, $550.
  • Yorkville (Dan Ives): started coverage at outperform, $500.
  • Jefferies: hold, target raised from $350 to $400.
  • UBS: buy, $391.
  • Goldman Sachs: upgraded from neutral to buy.
  • HSBC: reduce, $157.
  • GLJ Research: sell.

All from early-to-mid October 2026, as listed by MarketBeat.

What the Q3 2026 results changed

  • Better margins: gross margin rose to 19.6% from 16.8% in Q2, and adjusted earnings of $0.48 a share beat the $0.45 expected.
  • Lower profit: operating income fell 56% from a year earlier as research spending rose 69%.
  • Heavy spending: $4.7 billion of capital spending in the quarter, with more than $25 billion planned for 2026.
  • Progress on autonomy: 1.74 million FSD subscriptions, nearly 2 million unsupervised robotaxi miles, and the Cybercab joining the Austin fleet.

Full numbers on TSLA stock earnings. A day earlier, Musk said Tesla’s and SpaceX’s boards had set up special committees to study a merger, a new swing factor for the stock.

What bulls are watching

  • Robotaxi launches in more cities, and the Cybercab’s production ramp.
  • FSD approval in China and Europe.
  • Optimus moving into volume production.
  • Energy storage growth and its margins.

What bears are watching

  • Car deliveries, which fell in 2024 and 2025.
  • Free cash flow while capital spending stays this high.
  • The valuation: hundreds of times earnings (see the live Tesla P/E ratio).
  • Musk’s attention, and the terms of any SpaceX deal.

Dates that could move Tesla

  • Early January 2027: Q4 and full-year 2026 deliveries.
  • Late January 2027: Q4 results and the earnings call.
  • Every Fed decision and CPI report: rates move growth stocks like Tesla more than most. See the economic calendar.

How to use a price target

A 12-month target is one analyst’s estimate of fair value a year out. Tesla trades far from its targets for long stretches, and targets tend to follow the price rather than lead it. The useful part is the reasoning: what each analyst assumes about deliveries, margins and robotaxis. For the long view, see Tesla stock price prediction 2030.

Sources

Education, not financial advice. Analyst targets are opinions and change often. See our disclaimer.

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