LemonTrades2-year Treasury yield
The yield on two-year US government notes: the bond market’s best guess at where the Fed’s rates are heading.
- 10-year yield, live
- 5.146%
- 10y minus 2y
- +34 bp
- Fed funds rate
- 3.75%–4.00%
- 3-month bill
- 4.25%
- A year ago
- 3.45%
- 52-week range
- 3.38%–4.92%
The 2-year yield is 0.93 points above the middle of the Fed’s range: markets expect the Fed to raise rates further, or keep them high.
The 2-year yield over ten years
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Daily par yields from the US Treasury. The 2-year peaked above 5% in 2023, when the Fed’s rate was at its highest since 2001.
The yield curve today
| Maturity | Yield | 1 month ago | 1 year ago | Change in a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.09% | 3.96% | 4.12% | −3 bp |
| 3 months | 4.25% | 4.17% | 3.96% | +29 bp |
| 6 months | 4.35% | 4.27% | 3.78% | +57 bp |
| 1 year | 4.52% | 4.45% | 3.56% | +96 bp |
| 2 years | 4.81% | 4.76% | 3.45% | +136 bp |
| 5 years | 4.95% | 4.83% | 3.56% | +139 bp |
| 7 years | 5.03% | 4.89% | 3.74% | +129 bp |
| 10 years | 5.13% | 4.96% | 3.98% | +115 bp |
| 20 years | 5.47% | 5.33% | 4.53% | +94 bp |
| 30 years | 5.42% | 5.29% | 4.55% | +87 bp |
US Treasury par yields at the close of Wednesday, October 21, 2026. 1 bp (basis point) is 0.01 percentage points.
Why the 2-year tracks the Fed
A two-year note pays roughly what you’d expect to earn by rolling over overnight money at the Fed’s rate for two years. So the 2-year yield moves with expectations for the Fed: it jumps on a hot jobs or inflation report and falls when traders expect cuts. It’s often the first market to react to Fed news, and it moves more on it than the 10-year. See when the next Fed meeting is.
The 2s10s spread and recessions
The gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields is the most watched part of the curve. Normally the 10-year pays more. When the 2-year pays more (an “inverted” curve), markets expect rate cuts, often because they see a slowdown coming. The curve was inverted from mid-2022 to late 2024, one of the longest stretches on record.
Rate news
- Wed 11:46 PMLong-End US Yield Hits One-Month Low as AI Fears Fuel Haven Bid
AI sector worries dampen tech sentiment despite lower long-term yields.
- Wed 10:34 PMUS Dollar Index hovers around 101.70 as sliding US bond yields counters Fed hike bets
Lower bond yields balance Fed expectations, keeping the dollar in check.
- Wed 8:46 PMGold Falls, Weighed by Rising Energy Costs, Fed Uncertainty
Higher energy costs and rate uncertainty create headwinds for non-yielding gold.
- Wed 8:25 PMRay Dalio warns US bond bear market has a long way to go as debt supply swamps demand
Higher yields may lend support to the US dollar.
- Wed 7:56 PMGold Edges Lower as Traders Weigh Mideast Signals, Fed Rate Path
Traders assessing rate outlook and geopolitical signals weigh on gold demand.
- Wed 4:51 PM
- Wed 4:30 PMFrench Bond Yields Hit Multiyear Highs, U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Rising sovereign yields can impact euro currency and debt risk pricing.
- Wed 3:46 PMTreasuries Slide After Middle East Strife Report Spurs Oil Gains
Higher yields and energy prices support the US dollar.
Questions
What is the 2-year Treasury yield today?
4.81% at the close of Wednesday, October 21, 2026, from the US Treasury’s daily yield curve.
Why is the 2-year yield higher than the Fed funds rate?
Because markets expect the Fed to raise rates, or hold them high, over the next two years.
Where does this data come from?
The US Treasury’s daily par yield curve, published each afternoon. The 10-year figure on this page is live, from Cboe.
LemonTrades warns you 15 minutes before every Fed decision, CPI and jobs report, gives you the result against the forecast a minute after with what it means for your markets, and scores every headline on yields and the Fed as it breaks. Try LemonTrades free for 3 days, no card needed.
Market news and analysis, not financial advice. AI can misread a headline, so check the source before acting on anything important. Prices and news may be delayed.