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Every call, graded at the close

The bias scorecard checks each morning-brief call against the 5 PM ET close, so you can see how often the desk is right.

A ring gauge beside rows of green, red and gray dots.

Every weekday morning the desk makes a call on each of your markets: bullish, bearish or neutral. The scorecard checks every one of them against the close. All of them, not the good ones.

Why grade ourselves

A bias is only useful if you know how often it’s right. Most market commentary never gets checked. We’d rather show you the record, good weeks and bad, so you can decide how much weight to give it.

How a call is graded

Each call is checked at the next 5 PM ET close that’s at least two hours after the brief, against the same live price the brief used. Crypto is graded every day; everything else on weekdays.

  • Bullish is right if the market closed higher by at least a small band, wrong if it closed lower by that much, and flat in between.
  • Bearish is the reverse.
  • Neutral isn’t graded.

The band keeps noise from counting as a win or a loss: 0.1% for forex, 0.25% for metals and indices, 0.5% for energy and stocks, and 1% for crypto.

What you see

  • The hit rate, and the hit rate for high-confidence calls
  • The net move in the direction of the bias
  • A record for each market
  • Calls still waiting for the close, with the live move so far
  • Every recent call

Each morning brief also shows how the desk’s last call on that market did.

Past results don’t guarantee future ones. The scorecard shows how the desk has done, not how it will do. See the disclaimer.

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